DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00862.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964846766
论文题名: Probabilistic seasonal forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: A baseline skill assessment
作者: Becker E. ; van den Dool H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 8 起始页码: 3015
结束页码: 3026
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Geographical regions
; Oceanography
; Reliability
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Coupled models
; Cross-validated hindcasts
; Multi-model ensemble
; Northern Hemispheres
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Forecasting
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climatology
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation assessment
; sea surface temperature
; North America
英文摘要: The North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) forecasting system has been continuously producing seasonal forecasts since August 2011. The NMME, with its suite of diverse models, provides a valuable opportunity for characterizing forecast confidence using probabilistic forecasts. The current experimental probabilistic forecast product (in map format) presents the most likely tercile for the seasonal mean value, chosen out of above normal, near normal, or below normal categories, using a nonparametric counting method to determine the probability of each class. The skill of the 3-month-mean probabilistic forecasts of 2-m surface temperature (T2m), precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature is assessed using forecasts from the 29-yr (1982-2010) NMME hindcast database. Three forecast configurations are considered: a full six-model NMME; a "mini-NMME" with 24 members, four each from six models; and the 24-member CFSv2 alone. Skill is assessed on the cross-validated hindcasts using the Brier skill score (BSS); forecast reliability and resolution are also assessed. This study provides a baseline skill assessment of the current method of creating probabilistic forecasts from the NMME system. For forecasts in the above- and below-normal terciles for all variables and geographical regions examined in this study, BSS for NMME forecasts is higher than BSS for CFSv2 forecasts. Niño-3.4 forecasts from the full NMME and the mini-NMME receive nearly identical BSS that are higher than BSS for CFSv2 forecasts. Even systems with modest BSS, such as T2m in the Northern Hemisphere, have generally high reliability, as shown in reliability diagrams. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49975
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Becker E.,van den Dool H.. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: A baseline skill assessment[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(8)