DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962327669
论文题名: The importance of the montreal protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones
作者: Polvani L.M. ; Camargo S.J. ; Garcia R.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 6 起始页码: 2275
结束页码: 2289
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Sea ice
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Anthropogenic effects
; Climate prediction
; General circulation model
; Lower stratospheric temperature
; Ozone depleting substances
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Stratospheric chemistry
; Whole atmosphere community climate models
; Hurricanes
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric chemistry
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; Montreal Protocol
; ozone depletion
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with interactive stratospheric chemistry. An ensemble of WACCM runs from 2006 to 2065 forced with a standard future scenario is compared to a second ensemble in which ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are not regulated (the so-called World Avoided). It is found that by the year 2065, changes in the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in the World Avoided are nearly 3 times as large as for the standard scenario. The Montreal Protocol thus provides a strong mitigation of the adverse effects of intensifying tropical cyclones. The relative importance of warmer sea surface temperatures (ozone-depleting substances are important greenhouse gases) and cooler lower-stratospheric temperatures (accompanying the massive destruction of the ozone layer) is carefully examined. It is found that the former are largely responsible for the increase in potential intensity in the World Avoided, whereas temperatures above the 70-hPa level-which plunge by nearly 15 K in 2065 in the World Avoided-have no discernible effect on potential intensity. This finding suggests that the modest (compared to the World Avoided) tropical ozone depletion of recent decades has not been a major player in determining the intensity of tropical cyclones, and neither will ozone recovery be in the coming half century. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50001
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Polvani L.M.,Camargo S.J.,Garcia R.R.. The importance of the montreal protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(6)