DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962241820
论文题名: Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection
作者: Holmes C.R. ; Woollings T. ; Hawkins E. ; de Vries H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 6 起始页码: 2221
结束页码: 2236
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Regression analysis
; Surface properties
; Temperature
; Thermal gradients
; Tropics
; Ensembles
; Interannual variability
; Intraseasonal variability
; Surface temperatures
; Variability
; Climate change
; advection
; annual variation
; climate change
; climatology
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; meteorology
; Northern Hemisphere
; seasonal variation
; Europe
英文摘要: Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present-day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast, for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the twenty-first-century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future changes in monthly variability of near-surface temperature in the 17-member ensemble ESSENCE (Ensemble Simulations of Extreme Weather Events under Nonlinear Climate Change) are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases whereas in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and middle northern latitudes in summer. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50012
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Holmes C.R.,Woollings T.,Hawkins E.,et al. Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(6)