DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0310.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957644996
论文题名: The 2011 great flood in Thailand: Climate diagnostics and implications from climate change
作者: Promchote P. ; Wang S.-Y.S. ; Johnson P.G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 1 起始页码: 367
结束页码: 379
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Applications
; Climate models
; Floods
; Greenhouse gases
; Rain
; Sea level
; Soil moisture
; Storms
; Water management
; Abnormal conditions
; Chao phraya river basins
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Flood event
; Historical floods
; Management factors
; Meteorological condition
; Pre-monsoon rainfall
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate forcing
; flooding
; hydrological response
; monsoon
; rainfall
; Chao Phraya Basin
; Thailand
英文摘要: Severe flooding occurred in Thailand during the 2011 summer season, which resulted in more than 800 deaths and affected 13.6 million people. The unprecedented nature of this flood in the Chao Phraya River basin (CPRB) was examined and compared with historical flood years. Climate diagnostics were conducted to understand the meteorological conditions and climate forcing that led to the magnitude and duration of this flood. Neither the monsoon rainfall nor the tropical cyclone frequency anomalies alone was sufficient to cause the 2011 flooding event. Instead, a series of abnormal conditions collectively contributed to the intensity of the 2011 flood: Anomalously high rainfall in the premonsoon season, especially during March; record-high soil moisture content throughout the year; elevated sea level height in the Gulf of Thailand, which constrained drainage; and other water management factors. In the context of climate change, the substantially increased premonsoon rainfall in CPRB after 1980 and the continual sea level rise in the river outlet have both played a role. The rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the premonsoon northeasterly winds that come from East Asia. Attribution analysis using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical experiments pointed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the main external climate forcing leading to the rainfall increase. Together, these findings suggest increasing odds for potential flooding of similar intensity to that of the 2011 flood. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50021
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Promchote P.,Wang S.-Y.S.,Johnson P.G.. The 2011 great flood in Thailand: Climate diagnostics and implications from climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(1)