DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996606695
论文题名: Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century
作者: Zhang C. ; Wang Y. ; Hamilton K. ; Lauer A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 23 起始页码: 8333
结束页码: 8354
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boundary layers
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Commerce
; Gas emissions
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Landforms
; Moisture
; Rain
; Climate prediction
; Dynamical downscaling
; Global coupled model
; Marine boundary layer clouds
; Numerical analysis/modeling
; Pseudo-global warming methods
; Regional model
; Surface air temperatures
; Climate models
英文摘要: A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°-4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion-base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially (~83% to ~91%). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model's moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: JAMSTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
; USFWS, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50037
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Zhang C.,Wang Y.,Hamilton K.,et al. Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(23)