DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0351.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957795000
论文题名: Understanding the intermodel spread in global-mean hydrological sensitivity
作者: Fläschner D. ; Mauritsen T. ; Stevens B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 801
结束页码: 817
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Surface properties
; General circulation model
; Heat budgets/fluxes
; Hydrologic cycles
; Model comparison
; Sensitivity parameters
; Surface temperature changes
; Temperature independents
; Tropospheric temperature
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climatology
; general circulation model
; heat budget
; heat flux
; hydrological cycle
; meteorology
; precipitation (climatology)
; surface temperature
英文摘要: This paper assesses intermodel spread in the slope of global-mean precipitation change ΔP with respect to surface temperature change. The ambiguous estimates in the literature for this slope are reconciled by analyzing four experiments from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) and considering different definitions of the slope. The smallest intermodel spread (a factor of 1.5 between the highest and lowest estimate) is found when using a definition that disentangles temperature-independent precipitation changes (the adjustments) from the slope of the temperature-dependent precipitation response; here this slope is referred to as the hydrological sensitivity parameter η. The estimates herein show that η is more robust than stated in most previous work. The authors demonstrate that adjustments and η estimated from a steplike quadrupling CO2 experiment serve well to predict DP in a transient CO2 experiment. The magnitude of η is smaller in the coupled ocean- atmosphere quadrupling CO2 experiment than in the noncoupled atmosphere-only experiment. The offset in magnitude due to coupling suggests that intermodel spread may undersample uncertainty. Also assessed are the relative contribution of η, the surface warming, and the adjustment on the spread in ΔP on different time scales. Intermodel variation of both η and the adjustment govern the spread in ΔP in the years immediately after the abrupt forcing change. In equilibrium, the uncertainty in ΔP is dominated by uncertainty in the equilibrium surface temperature response. Akernel analysis reveals that intermodel spread in η is dominated by intermodel spread in tropical lower tropospheric temperature and humidity changes and cloud changes. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50038
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Fläschner D.,Mauritsen T.,Stevens B.. Understanding the intermodel spread in global-mean hydrological sensitivity[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)