DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0199.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957713113
论文题名: Twenty-first-century snowfall and snowpack changes over the Southern California mountains
作者: Sun F. ; Hall A. ; Schwartz M. ; Walton D.B. ; Berg N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 1 起始页码: 91
结束页码: 110
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Snow
; Snow melting systems
; Climate prediction
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Regional model
; Snow water equivalent
; Snowpack
; Statistical framework
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; general circulation model
; snowmelt
; snowpack
; statistical analysis
; twenty first century
; weather forecasting
; California
; United States
英文摘要: Future snowfall and snowpack changes over the mountains of Southern California are projected using a new hybrid dynamical-statistical framework. Output from all general circulation models (GCMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive is downscaled to 2-km resolution over the region. Variables pertaining to snow are analyzed for themiddle (2041-60) and end (2081-2100) of the twenty-first century under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP8.5 (business as usual) and RCP2.6 (mitigation). These four sets of projections are compared with a baseline reconstruction of climate from 1981 to 2000. For both future time slices and scenarios, ensemble-mean total winter snowfall loss is widespread. By the mid-twenty-first century under RCP8.5, ensemble-mean winter snowfall is about 70% of baseline, whereas the corresponding value for RCP2.6 is somewhat higher (about 80% of baseline). By the end of the century, however, the two scenarios diverge significantly. Under RCP8.5, snowfall sees a dramatic further decline; 2081-2100 totals are only about half of baseline totals. Under RCP2.6, only a negligible further reduction frommidcentury snowfall totals is seen.Because of the spread in theGCM climate projections, these figures are all associated with large intermodel uncertainty. Snowpack on the ground, as represented by 1 April snow water equivalent is also assessed. Because of enhanced snowmelt, the loss seen in snowpack is generally 50% greater than that seen in winter snowfall. By midcentury under RCP8.5, warmingaccelerated spring snowmelt leads to snow-free dates that are about 1-3 weeks earlier than in the baseline period. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50046
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sun F.,Hall A.,Schwartz M.,et al. Twenty-first-century snowfall and snowpack changes over the Southern California mountains[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(1)