DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0802.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991252423
论文题名: Future decreases in freezing days across North America
作者: Rawlins M.A. ; Bradley R.S. ; Diaz H.F. ; Kimball J.S. ; Robinson D.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 19 起始页码: 6923
结束页码: 6935
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Freezing
; Thawing
; Atmospheric reanalysis
; Climate change assessment
; Daily temperatures
; Freezing conditions
; Mean annual temperatures
; Regional climate models
; Regional model
; Surface temperatures
; Climate change
英文摘要: This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971-2000) and midcentury (2041-70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9-1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%-6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (>0.2°C day-) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50068
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; NOAA/ESRL/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States; Department of Geography, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rawlins M.A.,Bradley R.S.,Diaz H.F.,et al. Future decreases in freezing days across North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(19)