DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0167.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995480650
论文题名: The robustness of midlatitude weather pattern changes due to arctic sea ice loss
作者: Chen H.W. ; Zhang F. ; Alley R.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7831
结束页码: 7849
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Risk perception
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; Community atmosphere model
; Eastern north america
; Ensembles
; Intrinsic variabilities
; Northern Hemispheres
; Ice
英文摘要: The significance and robustness of the link between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in midlatitude weather patterns is investigated through a series of model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.3, with systematically perturbed sea ice cover in the Arctic. Using a large ensemble of 10 sea ice scenarios and 550 simulations, it is found that prescribed Arctic sea ice anomalies produce statistically significant changes for certain metrics of the midlatitude circulation but not for others. Furthermore, the significant midlatitude circulation changes do not scale linearly with the sea ice anomalies and are not present in all scenarios, indicating that the remote atmospheric response to reduced Arctic sea ice can be statistically significant under certain conditions but is generally nonrobust. Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream and changes in the meridional extent of upper-level large-scale waves due to the sea ice perturbations are generally small and not clearly distinguished from intrinsic variability. Reduced Arctic sea ice may favor a circulation pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation and may increase the risk of cold outbreaks in eastern Asia by almost 50%, but this response is found in only half of the scenarios with negative sea ice anomalies. In eastern North America the frequency of extreme cold events decreases almost linearly with decreasing sea ice cover. This study's finding of frequent significant anomalies without a robust linear response suggests interactions between variability and persistence in the coupled system, which may contribute to the lack of convergence among studies of Arctic influences on midlatitude circulation. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50072
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chen H.W.,Zhang F.,Alley R.B.. The robustness of midlatitude weather pattern changes due to arctic sea ice loss[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)