DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0191.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957828230
论文题名: Uncertainty in model climate sensitivity traced to representations of cumulus precipitation microphysics
作者: Zhao M. ; Golaz J.-C. ; Held I.M. ; Ramaswamy V. ; Lin S.-J. ; Ming Y. ; Ginoux P. ; Wyman B. ; Donner L.J. ; Paynter D. ; Guo H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 543
结束页码: 560
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Clouds
; Feedback
; Oceanography
; Parameterization
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate sensitivity
; Cloud microphysics
; Cloud parameterizations
; Convection parameterization
; Convective parameterization
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Increasing sea-surface temperatures
; Precipitation microphysics
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud microphysics
; cumulus
; parameterization
; precipitation (climatology)
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity impedes accurate climate projections. While the intermodel spread is known to arise primarily from differences in cloud feedback, the exact processes responsible for the spread remain unclear. To help identify some key sources of uncertainty, the authors use a developmental version of the next-generation Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global climate model (GCM) to construct a tightly controlled set of GCMs where only the formulation of convective precipitation is changed. The different models provide simulation of present-day climatology of comparable quality compared to the model ensemble from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The authors demonstrate that model estimates of climate sensitivity can be strongly affected by the manner through which cumulus cloud condensate is converted into precipitation in a model's convection parameterization, processes that are only crudely accounted for in GCMs. In particular, two commonly used methods for converting cumulus condensate into precipitation can lead to drastically different climate sensitivity, as estimated here with an atmosphere-land model by increasing sea surface temperatures uniformly and examining the response in the top-of-atmosphere energy balance. The effect can be quantified through a bulk convective detrainment efficiency, whichmeasures the ability of cumulus convection to generate condensate per unit precipitation. The model differences, dominated by shortwave feedbacks, come from broad regimes ranging from large-scale ascent to subsidence regions. Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and the current inability to find a clear observational constraint that favors one version of the authors'model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity need to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOC, U.S. Department of Commerce
; NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50077
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhao M.,Golaz J.-C.,Held I.M.,et al. Uncertainty in model climate sensitivity traced to representations of cumulus precipitation microphysics[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)