| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0012.1
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85001022216
|
| 论文题名: | Ensemble averaging and mean squared error |
| 作者: | Rougier J.
|
| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
|
| ISSN: | 8948755
|
| 出版年: | 2016
|
| 卷: | 29, 期:24 | | 起始页码: | 8865
|
| 结束页码: | 8870
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Climatology
; Statistics
; Climate science
; Climate variables
; Current generation
; Ensemble averaging
; Ensemble members
; In-field
; Mean squared error
; nocv1
; Mean square error
|
| 英文摘要: | In fields such as climate science, it is common to compile an ensemble of different simulators for the same underlying process. It is a striking observation that the ensemble mean often outperforms at least half of the ensemble members in mean squared error (measured with respect to observations). In fact, as demonstrated in the most recent IPCC report, the ensemble mean often outperforms all or almost all of the ensemble members across a range of climate variables. This paper shows that these could be mathematical results based on convexity and averaging but with implications for the properties of the current generation of climate simulators. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50086
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Rougier J.. Ensemble averaging and mean squared error[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(24)
|
|
|