DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0102.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991226769
论文题名: Predictability of arctic annual minimum sea ice patterns
作者: Grunseich G. ; Wang B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 19 起始页码: 7065
结束页码: 7088
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Melting
; Sea ice
; Tropics
; Atmospheric circulation
; Circulation anomalies
; Climate prediction
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Geographic location
; Natural climate variabilities
; Sea ice concentration
; Teleconnections
; Ice
英文摘要: Prediction of the arctic annual sea ice minimum extent and melting patterns draws interest from numerous industries and government agencies but has been an ongoing challenge for forecasters and climate scientists using statistical and dynamical models. Using the dominant independent modes of interannual sea ice concentration (SIC) variability during September-October, a new approach combining statistical analysis with physically derived links to natural climate variability sources is used to predict each mode and the total anomaly pattern. Sea ice patterns associated with each mode are predominantly shaped by the wind-driven advective convergence, forced by circulation anomalies associated with local and remote forms of naturally occurring climate variability. The impacts of the Arctic Oscillation, beginning from the preceding winter, control the leading mode of SIC variability during the annual minimum. In the three final months of the melting period, the broad impacts of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons produce unique SIC impacts along the arctic periphery, displayed as the second and third modes, respectively. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) largely shapes the fourth SIC mode patterns through influencing variability early in the melting period. Using physically meaningful and statistically significant predictors, physical-empirical (P-E) models are developed for each SIC mode. Some predictors directly account for the circulation patterns driving anomalous sea ice, while the monsoon-related predictors convey early season sources of monsoonal variability, which subsequently influences the Arctic. The combined SIC predictions of the P-E models exhibit great skill in matching the observed magnitude and temporal variability along the arctic margins during the annual minimum. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NRF, National Research Foundation of Korea
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50097
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Grunseich G.,Wang B.. Predictability of arctic annual minimum sea ice patterns[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(19)