DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0876.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84987950345
论文题名: Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño predictability in the early Twenty-First Century
作者: Zhao M. ; Hendon H.H. ; Alves O. ; Liu G. ; Wang G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 18 起始页码: 6805
结束页码: 6822
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Weather forecasting
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate prediction
; ENSO
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Seasonal forecasting
; Walker circulation
; Climate models
英文摘要: Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined sharply in the early twenty-first century relative to what was achieved in the late twentieth century despite ongoing improvements of forecast systems. This decline coincided with a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east-west surface temperature gradient across the Pacific and a stronger Walker circulation at the end of the twentieth century. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the authors show that this shift in background climate acted to weaken key ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. These results indicate that extreme El Niños, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, were conditioned by the background climate and so were favored to occur in the late twentieth century. However, anticipating future changes in El Niño variability and predictability is an outstanding challenge because causes and prediction of low-frequency variations of Pacific climate have not yet been demonstrated. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50113
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; AORI, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Zhao M.,Hendon H.H.,Alves O.,et al. Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño predictability in the early Twenty-First Century[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(18)