DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85000978552
论文题名: Benefits of increasing the model resolution for the seasonal forecast quality in EC-earth
作者: Prodhomme C. ; Batté L. ; Massonnet F. ; Davini P. ; Bellprat O. ; Guemas V. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 24 起始页码: 9141
结束页码: 9162
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Surface waters
; Wind
; Atmospheric blocking
; Bias
; Coupled models
; Forecast verification/skill
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Winter North Atlantic Oscillation
; Oceanography
英文摘要: Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993-2009 with the European community model EC-Earth in three configurations: standard resolution (~1° and ~60 km in the ocean and atmosphere models, respectively), intermediate resolution (~0.25° and ~60 km), and high resolution (~0.25° and ~39 km), the two latter configurations being used without any specific tuning. The model systematic biases of 2-m temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed are generally reduced. Notably, the tropical Pacific cold tongue bias is significantly reduced, the Somali upwelling is better represented, and excessive precipitation over the Indian Ocean and over the Maritime Continent is decreased. In terms of skill, tropical SSTs and precipitation are better reforecasted in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans at higher resolutions. In particular, the Indian monsoon is better predicted. Improvements are more difficult to detect at middle and high latitudes. Still, a slight improvement is found in the prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) along with a more realistic representation of atmospheric blocking. The sea ice extent bias is unchanged, but the skill of the reforecasts increases in some cases, such as in summer for the pan-Arctic sea ice. All these results emphasize the idea that the resolution increase is an essential feature for forecast system development. At the same time, resolution alone cannot tackle all the forecast system deficiencies and will have to be implemented alongside new physical improvements to significantly push the boundaries of seasonal prediction. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50119
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; Institut Català de Cienciès del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Torino, Italy; Institucio Catalana de Recerca I Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Prodhomme C.,Batté L.,Massonnet F.,et al. Benefits of increasing the model resolution for the seasonal forecast quality in EC-earth[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(24)