DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0362.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959458793
论文题名: Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models' projected arctic warming
作者: Chylek P. ; Vogelsang T.J. ; Klett J.D. ; Hengartner N. ; Higdon D. ; Lesins G. ; Dubey M.K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 4 起始页码: 1417
结束页码: 1428
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Aerosol cooling
; Aerosol effect
; Arctic warming
; Climate sensitivity
; Intercomparisons
; Radiative forcings
; Climate models
; aerosol
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cooling
; radiative forcing
; trend analysis
; warming
; Arctic
英文摘要: Phase 5 of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models' projections of the 2014-2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900-2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014-2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. The CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50122
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, Mexico; Department of Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; Par Associates, Las Cruces, Mexico; Department of Physics, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, Mexico; Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, Mexico; Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Blacksburg, VA, United States; Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chylek P.,Vogelsang T.J.,Klett J.D.,et al. Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models' projected arctic warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(4)