DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0577.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959499752
论文题名: A temporal kernel method to compute effective radiative forcing in CMIP5 transient simulations
作者: Larson E.J.L. ; Portmann R.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 4 起始页码: 1497
结束页码: 1509
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Volcanoes
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Energy balance method
; Global mean surface temperature
; Radiative forcings
; Temperature changes
; Top of the atmospheres
; Transient simulation
; Volcanic eruptions
; Atmospheric temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; radiative forcing
; temporal analysis
英文摘要: Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is calculated as the flux change at the top of the atmosphere after allowing rapid adjustments resulting from a forcing agent, such as greenhouse gases. Rapid adjustments include changes to atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and clouds. Accurate estimates of ERF are necessary in order to understand the drivers of climate change. This work presents a new method of calculating ERF using a kernel derived from the time series of a model variable (e.g., global mean surface temperature) in a model-step change experiment. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative imbalance has the best noise tolerance for retrieving the ERF of the model variables tested. This temporal kernel method is compared with an energy balance method, which equates ERF to the TOA radiative imbalance plus the scaled surface temperature change. Sensitivities and biases of these methods are quantified using output from phase 5 of the the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The temporal kernel method is likely more accurate for models in which a linear fit is a poor approximation for the relationship between temperature change and TOA imbalance. The difference between these methods is most apparent in forcing estimates for the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The CMIP5 multimodel mean ERF calculated for large volcanic eruptions is 80% of the adjusted forcing reported by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This suggests that about 5% more energy has come into the earth system since 1870 than suggested by the IPCC AR5. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50140
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Larson E.J.L.,Portmann R.W.. A temporal kernel method to compute effective radiative forcing in CMIP5 transient simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(4)