DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0515.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983565518
论文题名: Dynamic preconditioning of the minimum september sea-ice extent
作者: Williams J. ; Tremblay B. ; Newton R. ; Allard R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 16 起始页码: 5879
结束页码: 5891
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Ocean currents
; Regression analysis
; Sea ice
; Arctic oscillation indices
; Dynamical mechanisms
; Highly-correlated
; Lagrangian trajectories
; Model-based OPC
; Multivariate regression models
; Priori knowledge
; Seasonal forecasting
; Ice
英文摘要: There has been an increased interest in seasonal forecasting of the Arctic sea ice extent in recent years, in particular the minimum sea ice extent. Here, a dynamical mechanism, based on winter preconditioning, is found to explain a significant fraction of the variance in the anomaly of the September sea ice extent from the long-term linear trend. To this end, a Lagrangian trajectory model is used to backtrack the September sea ice edge to any time during the previous winter and quantify the amount of sea ice advection away from the Eurasian and Alaskan coastlines as well as the Fram Strait sea ice export. The late-winter anomalous sea ice drift away from the coastline is highly correlated with the following September sea ice extent minimum (r= -0.66). It is found that the winter mean Fram Strait sea ice export anomaly is also correlated with the minimum sea ice extent the following summer (r= -0.74). To develop a hindcast model of the September sea ice extent-which does not depend on a priori knowledge of the minimum sea ice extent-a synthetic ice edge initialized at the beginning of the melt season (1 June) is backtracked. It is found that using a multivariate regression model of the September sea ice extent anomaly based on ice export from the peripheral Arctic seas and Fram Strait ice export as predictors reduces the error by 38%. A hindcast model based on the mean December-April Arctic Oscillation index alone reduces the error by 24%. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: ONR, Office of Naval Research
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50141
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, MS, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Williams J.,Tremblay B.,Newton R.,et al. Dynamic preconditioning of the minimum september sea-ice extent[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(16)