DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983486037
论文题名: Past and projected changes in western north pacific tropical cyclone exposure
作者: Kossin J.P. ; Emanuel K.A. ; Camargo S.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 16 起始页码: 5725
结束页码: 5739
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Regional differences
; Relative amplitude
; Sea surface temperature variability
; South China sea
; Systematic changes
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Hurricanes
英文摘要: The average latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their peak intensity has been observed to be shifting poleward in some regions over the past 30 years, apparently in concert with the independently observed expansion of the tropical belt. This poleward migration is particularly well observed and robust in the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). Such a migration is expected to cause systematic changes, both increases and decreases, in regional hazard exposure and risk, particularly if it persists through the present century. Here, it is shown that the past poleward migration in the WNP has coincided with decreased TC exposure in the region of the Philippine and South China Seas, including the Marianas, the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China, and increased exposure in the region of the East China Sea, including Japan and its Ryukyu Islands, the Korea Peninsula, and parts of eastern China.Additionally, it is shown that projections ofWNP TCs simulated by, and downscaled from, an ensemble of numerical models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) demonstrate a continuing poleward migration into the present century following the emissions projections of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The projected migration causes a shift in regional TC exposure that is very similar in pattern and relative amplitude to the past observed shift. In terms of regional differences in vulnerability and resilience based on past TC exposure, the potential ramifications of these future changes are significant. Questions of attribution for the changes are discussed in terms of tropical belt expansion and Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; ONR, Office of Naval Research
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50171
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kossin J.P.,Emanuel K.A.,Camargo S.J.. Past and projected changes in western north pacific tropical cyclone exposure[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(16)