DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957620268
论文题名: Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate
作者: Tietsche S. ; Hawkins E. ; Day J.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 1 起始页码: 331
结束页码: 346
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Surface waters
; Weather forecasting
; Arctic
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; Geographic location
; Heat budgets/fluxes
; Sea/ocean surfaces
; Heat flux
; air-sea interaction
; climate prediction
; climatology
; ensemble forecasting
; heat budget
; heat flux
; heat transfer
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; Arctic
英文摘要: Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, the authors characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to the IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. It is found that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. It is concluded that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50177
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tietsche S.,Hawkins E.,Day J.J.. Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(1)