DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0302.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957837278
论文题名: Objective calibration of regional climate models: Application over Europe and North America
作者: Bellprat O. ; Kotlarski S. ; Lüthi D. ; De Elía R. ; Frigon A. ; Laprise R. ; Schär C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 819
结束页码: 838
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Evaporative cooling systems
; Geographical regions
; Hydraulic conductivity
; Optimization
; Risk perception
; Soil moisture
; Uncertainty analysis
; Europe
; Geographic location
; Model evaluation/performance
; North America
; Regional model
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; calibration
; climate modeling
; climatology
; optimization
; regional climate
; soil moisture
; statistical analysis
; Europe
; North America
英文摘要: An important source of model uncertainty in climate models arises from unconfined model parameters in physical parameterizations. These parameters are commonly estimated on the basis of manual adjustments (expert tuning), which carries the risk of overtuning the parameters for a specific climate region or time period. This issue is particularly germane in the case of regional climate models (RCMs), which are often developed and used in one or a few geographical regions only. This study addresses the role of objective parameter calibration in this context. Using a previously developed objective calibration methodology, an RCM is calibrated over two regions (Europe and North America) and is used to investigate the transferability of the results. A total of eight different model parameters are calibrated, using a metamodel to account for parameter interactions. The study demonstrates that the calibration is effective in reducing model biases in both domains. For Europe, this concerns in particular a pronounced reduction of the summer warm bias and the associated overestimation of interannual temperature variability that have persisted through previous expert tuning efforts and are common in many global and regional climate models. The key process responsible for this improvement is an increased hydraulic conductivity. Higher hydraulic conductivity increases the water availability at the land surface and leads to increased evaporative cooling, stronger low cloud formation, and associated reduced incoming shortwave radiation. The calibrated parameter values are found to be almost identical for both domains; that is, the parameter calibration is transferable between the two regions. This is a promising result and indicates that models may be more universal than previously considered. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50182
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institut Catala de Ciènces del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Consortium sur la Climatologie Régionale et L'Adaptation aux Changement Climatiques, OURANOS, Montréal, QC, Canada; Centre étude et Simulation du Climat à l'échelle Régionale, Montréal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Bellprat O.,Kotlarski S.,Lüthi D.,et al. Objective calibration of regional climate models: Application over Europe and North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)