DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0531.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957827987
论文题名: Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric- resolution coupled prediction system
作者: Manganello J.V. ; Hodges K.I. ; Cash B.A. ; Kinter J.L. ; III ; Altshuler E.L. ; Fennessy M.J. ; Vitart F. ; Molteni F. ; Towers P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 3 起始页码: 1179
结束页码: 1200
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Coupled models
; Interannual variability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Tropical cyclone
; Variability
; Forecasting
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; coupling
; ensemble forecasting
; seasonal variation
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWFSystem 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980-2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50186
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Manganello J.V.,Hodges K.I.,Cash B.A.,et al. Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric- resolution coupled prediction system[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(3)