DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0673.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995528364
论文题名: A modeling study of the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 extreme U.S. weather activity
作者: Schubert S. ; Chang Y. ; Wang H. ; Koster R. ; Suarez M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7869
结束页码: 7887
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Storms
; Surface waters
; ENSO
; Extratropical cyclones
; Extreme events
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Spring season
; Oceanography
英文摘要: This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Niña conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric-stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50197
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schubert S.,Chang Y.,Wang H.,et al. A modeling study of the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 extreme U.S. weather activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)