DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0082.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84997026850
论文题名: Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in Southwestern Australia: Coincidence or causality?
作者: Heinzeller D. ; Junkermann W. ; Kunstmann H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 23 起始页码: 8471
结束页码: 8493
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Catchments
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Deforestation
; Drops
; Global warming
; Meteorology
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; Anthropogenic effects
; Australia
; Climate sensitivity
; Cloud resolving model
; Model comparison
; Precipitation (meteorology)
英文摘要: It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in southwestern Australia during the twentieth century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation, and anthropogenic aerosol emissions-all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focuses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in southwestern Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical long-term rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that southwestern Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the twentieth century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modeling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-74. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2%-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater southwestern Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the west coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation, and anthropogenic aerosol emissions. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50231
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Heinzeller D.,Junkermann W.,Kunstmann H.. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in Southwestern Australia: Coincidence or causality?[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(23)