DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0844.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996844951
论文题名: Changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns in changing climate conditions
作者: Chang W. ; Stein M.L. ; Wang J. ; Kotamarthi V.R. ; Moyer E.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 23 起始页码: 8355
结束页码: 8376
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Statistics
; Storms
; Thunderstorms
; Data-driven simulation
; High-resolution models
; Hydrologic cycles
; Model output statistics
; Physical characteristics
; Precipitation characteristics
; Precipitation intensity
; Precipitation patterns
; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6%-7% K-1, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (1%-2% K-1 in the global average in transient runs). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. The authors develop a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics-including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory-that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. This technique is applied to precipitation over the contiguous United States from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 80 years of business-as-usual warming. In the model study the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. However, these projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. The authors therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and they show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
; NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
; NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50245
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, United States; Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chang W.,Stein M.L.,Wang J.,et al. Changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns in changing climate conditions[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(23)