DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0032.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85000879073
论文题名: Estimating the continental response to global warming using pattern-scaled sea surface temperatures and sea ice
作者: Bichet A. ; Kushner P.J. ; Mudryk L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 24 起始页码: 9125
结束页码: 9139
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Global warming
; Ice
; Ocean currents
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Sea ice
; Snow
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic effects
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Community atmosphere model
; Decadal variability
; National center for atmospheric researches
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Oceanography
英文摘要: Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST-SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980-2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST-SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980-2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50252
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CNRS-LGGE/MEOM, Grenoble, France; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Bichet A.,Kushner P.J.,Mudryk L.. Estimating the continental response to global warming using pattern-scaled sea surface temperatures and sea ice[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(24)