DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0909.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995400140
论文题名: Autoregressive modeling for tropical cyclone intensity climatology
作者: Lee C.-Y. ; Tippett M.K. ; Sobel A.H. ; Camargo S.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7815
结束页码: 7830
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Hurricanes
; Risk assessment
; Speech enhancement
; Stochastic systems
; Storms
; Tropics
; Auto regressive models
; Climatological distributions
; Deterministic component
; Deterministic modeling
; Environmental variables
; Intensity distribution
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Stochastic models
英文摘要: An autoregressive model is developed to simulate the climatological distribution of global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The model consists of two components: a regression-based deterministic component that advances the TC intensity in time and depends on the storm state and surrounding large-scale environment and a stochastic forcing. Potential intensity, deep-layer mean vertical shear, and midlevel relative humidity are the environmental variables included in the deterministic component. Given a storm track and its environment, the model is initialized and then iterated along the track. Model performance is evaluated by its ability to represent the observed global and basin distributions of TC intensity as well as lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). The deterministic model alone captures the spatial features of the climatological TC intensity distribution but with intensities that remain below 100 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s-1). Addition of white (uncorrelated in time) stochastic forcing reduces this bias by improving the simulated intensification rates and the frequency of major storms. The model simulates a realistic range of intensities, but the frequency of major storms remains too low in some basins. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50269
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lee C.-Y.,Tippett M.K.,Sobel A.H.,et al. Autoregressive modeling for tropical cyclone intensity climatology[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)