| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0548.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84959568801
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| 论文题名: | Skill in simulating australian precipitation at the tropical edge |
| 作者: | Maher P.; Sherwood S.C.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 29, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1477
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| 结束页码: | 1496
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Fighter aircraft
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Indian Ocean dipole
; Linear independence
; Precipitation trends
; Precipitation variability
; Southern Annular Mode
; Southern oscillation
; Subtropical ridge
; Tropics
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Hadley cell
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; precipitation (climatology)
; Australia
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| 英文摘要: | Expansion of the tropics will likely affect subtropical precipitation, but observed and modeled precipitation trends disagreewith each other.Moreover, the dynamic processes at the tropical edge and their interactionswith precipitation are not well understood. This study assesses the skill of climate models to reproduce observed Australian precipitation variability at the tropical edge. A multivariate linear independence approach distinguishes between direct (causal) and indirect (circumstantial) precipitation drivers that facilitate clearer attribution ofmodel errors and skill. This approach is applied to observed precipitation and ERA-Interimreanalysis data and a representative subset of four models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and their CMIP3 counterparts. The drivers considered are El Niño-Southern Oscillation, southern annular mode, Indian Ocean dipole, blocking, and four tropical edge metrics (position and intensity of the subtropical ridge and subtropical jet). These models are skillful in representing the covariability of drivers and their influence on precipitation.However, skill scores have not improved in theCMIP5 subset relative toCMIP3 in either respect. The Australian precipitation response to a poleward-located Hadley cell edge remains uncertain, as opposing drying and moistening mechanisms complicate the net response. Higher skill in simulating driver covariability is not consistently mirrored by higher precipitation skill. This provides further evidence that modeled precipitation does not respond correctly to large-scale flow patterns; further improvements in parameterized moist physics are needed before the subtropical precipitation responses can be fully trusted. The multivariate linear independence approach could be applied more widely for practical model evaluation. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50310
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Maher P.,Sherwood S.C.. Skill in simulating australian precipitation at the tropical edge[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(4)
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