DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0241.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995444950
论文题名: A simple moisture advection model of specific humidity change over land in response to SST warming
作者: Chadwick R. ; Good P. ; Willett K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7613
结束页码: 7632
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Atmospheric humidity
; Atmospheric temperature
; Budget control
; Climate models
; Hydrology
; Moisture
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Range finding
; Surface waters
; Thermodynamics
; Extreme precipitation
; Hydrologic cycles
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Precipitation change
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Spatial correlation coefficients
; Thermodynamic process
; Tropical precipitation
; Climate change
英文摘要: A simple conceptual model of surface specific humidity change (Δq) over land is described, based on the effect of increased moisture advection from the oceans in response to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In this model, future q over land is determined by scaling the present-day pattern of land q by the fractional increase in the oceanic moisture source. Simple model estimates agree well with climate model projections of future Δq (mean spatial correlation coefficient 0.87), so Δq over both land and ocean can be viewed primarily as a thermodynamic process controlled by SST warming. Precipitation change (ΔP) is also affected by Δq and the new simple model can be included in a decomposition of tropical precipitation change, where it provides increased physical understanding of the processes that drive ΔP over land. Confidence in the thermodynamic part of extreme precipitation change over land is increased by this improved understanding, and this should scale approximately with Clausius-Clapeyron oceanic q increases under SST warming. Residuals of actual climate model Δq from simple model estimates are often associated with regions of large circulation change, and can be thought of as the "dynamical" part of specific humidity change. The simple model is used to explore intermodel uncertainty in, and there are substantial contributions to uncertainty from both the thermodynamic (simple model) and dynamical (residual) terms. The largest cause of intermodel uncertainty within the thermodynamic term is uncertainty in the magnitude of global mean SST warming. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50326
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Chadwick R.,Good P.,Willett K.. A simple moisture advection model of specific humidity change over land in response to SST warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)