DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0525.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84977471525
论文题名: Projecting and forecasting winter precipitation extremes and meteorological drought in California using the North Pacific high sea level pressure anomaly
作者: Costa-Cabral M. ; Rath J.S. ; Mills W.B. ; Roy S.B. ; Bromirski P.D. ; Milesi C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 13 起始页码: 5009
结束页码: 5026
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric humidity
; Atmospheric pressure
; Bayesian networks
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Drought
; Forecasting
; NASA
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Sea level
; Water management
; Water resources
; Bayesian methods
; ENSO
; General circulation model
; Reanalysis
; Statistical forecasting
; Statistical techniques
; Walker circulation
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric general circulation model
; atmospheric modeling
; Bayesian analysis
; climate prediction
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea level pressure
; Walker circulation
; winter
; California
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: Large-scale climatic indices have been used as predictors of precipitation totals and extremes in many studies and are used operationally in weather forecasts to circumvent the difficulty in obtaining robust dynamical simulations of precipitation. The authors show that the sea level pressure North Pacific high (NPH) wintertime anomaly, a component of the Northern Oscillation index (NOI), provides a superior covariate of interannual precipitation variability in Northern California, including seasonal precipitation totals, drought, and extreme precipitation intensity, compared to traditional ENSO indices such as the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), Niño-3.4, and others. Furthermore, the authors show that the NPH anomaly more closely reflects the influence of Pacific basin conditions over California in general, over groups of stations used to characterize statewide precipitation in the Sierra Nevada range, and over the southern San Francisco Bay region (NASA Ames Research Center). This paper uses the term prediction to refer to the estimation of precipitation (the predictand) from a climate covariate (the predictor), such as a climate index, or atmospheric moisture. In this sense, predictor and predictand are simultaneous in time. Statistical models employed show the effectiveness of the NPH winter anomaly as a predictor of total winter precipitation and daily precipitation extremes at the Moffett Field station. NPH projected by global climate models is also used in conjunction with atmospheric humidity [atmospheric specific humidity (HUS) at the 850-hPa level] to obtain projections of mean and extreme precipitation. The authors show that future development of accurate forecasts of NPH anomalies issued several months in advance is important for forecasting total winter precipitation and is expected to directly benefit water resource management in California. Therefore, the authors suggest that investigating the lead-time predictability of NPH anomalies is an important direction for future research. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: CASI, Canadian Aeronautics and Space Institute
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50348
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Northwest Hydraulic Consultants, Inc., Seattle, WA, United States; Research and Development Group, Tetra Tech, Inc., Lafayette, CA, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Costa-Cabral M.,Rath J.S.,Mills W.B.,et al. Projecting and forecasting winter precipitation extremes and meteorological drought in California using the North Pacific high sea level pressure anomaly[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(13)