DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957818668
论文题名: Constraining future summer austral jet stream positions in the CMIP5 ensemble by process-oriented multiple diagnostic regression
作者: Wenzel S. ; Eyring V. ; Gerber E.P. ; Karpechko A.Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 673
结束页码: 687
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Dynamics
; Greenhouse gases
; Optimization
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Regression analysis
; Wind stress
; Bayesian methods
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extratropical circulation
; Historical climatologies
; Lower stratospheric temperature
; Statistical techniques
; Variability
; Fighter aircraft
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; Bayesian analysis
; climate variation
; ensemble forecasting
; jet stream
; optimization
; regression analysis
; summer
; wind stress
; Antarctica
英文摘要: Stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases are anticipated to have a large impact on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, shifting the jet stream and associated storm tracks. Models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project poorly simulate the austral jet, with a mean equatorward bias and 10° latitude spread in their historical climatologies, and project a wide range of future trends in response to anthropogenic forcing in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here, the question is addressed whether the unweighted multimodel mean (uMMM) austral jet projection of the RCP4.5 scenario can be improved by applying a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER). MDER links future projections of the jet position to processes relevant to its simulation under present-day conditions.MDERis first targeted to constrain near-term (2015-34) projections of the austral jet position and selects the historical jet position as the most important of 20 diagnostics. The method essentially recognizes the equatorward bias in the past jet position and provides a bias correction of about 1.5° latitude southward to future projections.When the target horizon is extended to midcentury (2040- 59), the method also recognizes that lower-stratospheric temperature trends over Antarctica, a proxy for the intensity of ozone depletion, provide additional information that can be used to reduce uncertainty in the ensemble mean projection. MDER does not substantially alter the uMMM long-term position in jet position but reduces the uncertainty in the ensemble mean projection. This result suggests that accurate observational constraints on upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric temperature trends are needed to constrain projections of the austral jet position. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50356
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft - und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, United States; Arctic Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Wenzel S.,Eyring V.,Gerber E.P.,et al. Constraining future summer austral jet stream positions in the CMIP5 ensemble by process-oriented multiple diagnostic regression[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)