| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0112.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84980347703
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| 论文题名: | Predictability of the California Niño/Niña |
| 作者: | Doi T.; Yuan C.; Behera S.K.; Yamagata T.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 28, 期:18 | | 起始页码: | 7237
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| 结束页码: | 7249
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Climatology
; Feedback
; Forecasting
; Climate prediction
; Coupled phenomena
; Horizontal resolution
; Ocean atmosphere general circulation models
; Scale interactions
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Social applications
; Nickel
; climate prediction
; coastal zone
; El Nino
; general circulation model
; Kelvin wave
; La Nina
; regional climate
; seasonality
; California
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | Predictability of a recently discovered regional coupled climate mode called the California Niño (Niña) offBaja California and California is explored using a seasonal prediction system based on the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier, version 1 (SINTEX-F1) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Because of the skillful prediction of basin-scale El Niño (La Niña), the California Niño (Niña) that co-occurs with El Niño (La Niña) with a peak in boreal winter is found to be predictable at least a couple of seasons ahead. On the other hand, the regional coupled phenomenon peaking in boreal summer without co-occurrence with El Niño (La Niña) is difficult to predict. The difficulty in predicting such an intrinsic regional climate phenomenon may be due to model deficiency in resolving the regional air-sea-land positive feedback processes. The model may also underestimate coastal Kelvin waves with a small offshore scale, which may play an important role in the generation of the California Niño/Niña. It may be improved by increasing horizontal resolution of the ocean component of the coupled model. The present study may provide a guideline to improve seasonal prediction of regional climate modes for important industrial as well as social applications. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. |
| 资助项目: | JAMSTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
; MOE, Ministry of the Environment
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50381
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Doi T.,Yuan C.,Behera S.K.,et al. Predictability of the California Niño/Niña[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(18)
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