DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955206546
论文题名: Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation
作者: Kent C. ; Chadwick R. ; Rowell D.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 11 起始页码: 4390
结束页码: 4413
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Electric power system interconnection
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Global-mean temperature
; Hydrologic cycles
; Land-sea thermal contrasts
; Precipitation change
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal precipitations
; Tropical precipitation
; Walker circulation
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; tropical environment
; uncertainty analysis
; Walker circulation
; East Africa
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Projected changes in regional seasonal precipitation due to climate change are highly uncertain, with model disagreement on even the sign of change in many regions. Using a 20-member CMIP5 ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario, the intermodel uncertainty of the spatial patterns of projected end-of-twenty-first-century change in precipitation is found not to be strongly influenced by uncertainty in global mean temperature change. In the tropics, both the ensemble mean and intermodel uncertainty of regional precipitation change are found to be predominantly related to spatial shifts in convection and convergence, associated with processes such as sea surface temperature (SST) pattern change and land-sea thermal contrast change. The authors hypothesize that the zonal-mean seasonal migration of these shifts is driven by 1) the nonlinear spatial response of convection to SST changes and 2) a general movement of convection from land to ocean in response to SST increases. Assessment of tropical precipitation model projections over East Africa highlights the complexity of regional rainfall changes. Thermodynamically driven moisture increases determine the magnitude of the long rains (March-May) ensemble mean precipitation change in this region, whereas model uncertainty in spatial shifts of convection accounts for almost all of the intermodel uncertainty. Moderate correlations are found across models between the long rains precipitation change and patterns of SST change in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Further analysis of the capability of models to represent present-day SST-rainfall links, and any relationship with model projections, may contribute to constraining the uncertainty in projected East Africa long rains precipitation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50393
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Kent C.,Chadwick R.,Rowell D.P.. Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(11)