DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00467.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922829494
论文题名: Dynamically downscaled projections of lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes basin
作者: Notaro M. ; Bennington V. ; Vavrus S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1661
结束页码: 1684
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Lakes
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Snow
; Atmospheric warming
; Cold season precipitation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model
; Lake-effect precipitation
; Laurentian Great Lakes
; Regional climate modeling
; Theoretical physics
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; coupling
; downscaling
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; shore (nonmarine)
; snowstorm
; Canada
; Great Lakes Basin
; Great Lakes [North America]
; Lake Superior
; Laurentian Mountains
; Quebec [Canada]
英文摘要: Projected changes in lake-effect snowfall by the mid- and late twenty-first century are explored for the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Simulations from two state-of-the-art global climate models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are dynamically downscaled according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The downscaling is performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with 25-km grid spacing, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model. Both downscaled models produce atmospheric warming and increased cold-season precipitation. The Great Lakes' ice cover is projected to dramatically decline and, by the end of the century, become confined to the northern shallow lakeshores during mid-to-late winter. Projected reductions in ice cover and greater dynamically induced wind fetch lead to enhanced lake evaporation and resulting total lake-effect precipitation, although with increased rainfall at the expense of snowfall. A general reduction in the frequency of heavy lake-effect snowstorms is simulated during the twenty-first century, except with increases around Lake Superior by the midcentury when local air temperatures still remain low enough for wintertime precipitation to largely fall in the form of snow. Despite the significant progress made here in elucidating the potential future changes in lake-effect snowstorms across the Great Lakes basin, further research is still needed to downscale a larger ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations, ideally using a higher-resolution, nonhydrostatic regional climate model coupled to a threedimensional lake model. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50420
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Notaro M.,Bennington V.,Vavrus S.. Dynamically downscaled projections of lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes basin[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)