DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946202164
论文题名: Trends and natural variability of spring onset in the coterminous united states as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices
作者: Ault T.R. ; Schwartz M.D. ; Zurita-Milla R. ; Weltzin J.F. ; Betancourt J.L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 21 起始页码: 8363
结束页码: 8378
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Ecology
; Meteorology
; Agricultural activities
; Ecological systems
; Ecosystem functions
; Meteorological data
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multidecadal variations
; Natural variability
; Regional trends
; Climate change
; annual variation
; data set
; decadal variation
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; secular variation
; spring (season)
; trend analysis
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade -1, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50429
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States; Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands; USA National Phenology Network, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ault T.R.,Schwartz M.D.,Zurita-Milla R.,et al. Trends and natural variability of spring onset in the coterminous united states as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(21)