DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00233.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942024191
论文题名: Indian summer monsoon rainfall processes in climate change scenarios
作者: Asharaf S. ; Ahrens B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 13 起始页码: 5414
结束页码: 5429
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Efficiency
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Ionization of gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Wind
; Climate change scenarios
; Global climate model
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Precipitation efficiency
; Precipitation process
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Scenario simulations
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; summer
; twenty first century
; India
英文摘要: Indian summer monsoon rainfall was examined in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; B1) and a similar greenhouse gas scenario, the new representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5). The rainfall change in the climate model projections through remotely induced changes in precipitation processes and through changes in precipitation efficiency processes was discussed. To that end, two model setups were applied: 1) the regional climate model (RCM) Consortiumfor Small-Scale Modelling in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), nested in the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute ocean model (ECHAM5/MPIOM), applying the greenhouse gas scenario B1; and 2) the RCM nested in a newer version of the GCM, ECHAM6/MPIOM, incorporating the RCP4.5 scenario. Both GCM simulations showed a slight increase in precipitation over central India toward the end of the twenty-first century. This slight increase was the result of two largely compensating changes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. The RCM with the scenario RCP4.5 followed this trend, but with smaller changes. However, the RCM with B1 showed a decreasing trend in precipitation because of a slightly larger absolute change of the reduced precipitation efficiency compared to the change caused by the remote processes. Changes of these processes in the scenario simulations were larger than the natural variability, as simulated in an unperturbed preindustrial greenhouse gas control (CTL) climate simulation. Results indicated that the projection of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is still a key challenge for both the GCM and the RCM. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50430
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, and Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany; Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Asharaf S.,Ahrens B.. Indian summer monsoon rainfall processes in climate change scenarios[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)