DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00303.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922825750
论文题名: Detecting long-term trends in precipitable water over the tibetan plateau by synthesis of station and MODIS observations
作者: Lu N. ; Trenberth K.E. ; Qin J. ; Yang K. ; Yao L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1707
结束页码: 1722
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Climate change
; Image reconstruction
; Inference engines
; Satellite imagery
; Bayesian estimation model
; Bayesian estimations
; Bayesian inference
; Climate change assessment
; Meteorological station
; Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer
; Posterior probability
; Precipitable water
; Radiometers
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; detection method
; GPS
; MODIS
; observational method
; precipitation assessment
; trend analysis
; weather forecasting
; China
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Long-term trends in precipitable water (PW) are an important component of climate change assessments for the Tibetan Plateau (TP). PW products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are able to provide good spatial coverage of PW over the TP but limited in time coverage, while the meteorological stations in the TP can estimate long-term PWbut unevenly distributed. To detect the decadal trend in PWover the TP, Bayesian inference theory is used to construct long-term and spatially continuous PW data for the TP based on the station and MODIS observations. The prior information on the monthly-mean PWfrom MODIS and the 63 stations over the TP for 2000-06 is used to get the posterior probability knowledge that is utilized to build a Bayesian estimation model. This model is then operated to estimate continuous monthly-mean PW for 1970-2011 and its performance is evaluated using the monthly MODIS PW anomalies (2007-11) and annual GPS PW anomalies (1995-2011), with RMSEs below 0.65 mm, to demonstrate that the model estimation can reproduce the PW variability over the TP in both space and time. Annual PW series show a significant increasing trend of 0.19 mm decade-1 for the TP during the 42 years. The most significant PW increase of 0.47 mm decade-1 occurs for 1986-99 and an insignificant decrease occurs for 2000-11. From the comparison of the PW data from JRA-55, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-2, and ISCCP, it is found that none of them are able to show the actual long-term trends and variability in PW for the TP as the Bayesian estimation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50442
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Jiangsu Center for Collab. Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and App., Nanjing, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Lu N.,Trenberth K.E.,Qin J.,et al. Detecting long-term trends in precipitable water over the tibetan plateau by synthesis of station and MODIS observations[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)