globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00753.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944111539
论文题名:
Regional variations in potential plant habitat changes in response to multiple global warming scenarios
作者: Park C.-E.; Jeong S.-J.; Ho C.-H.; Kim J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:7
起始页码: 2884
结束页码: 2899
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Ecosystems ; Global warming ; International cooperation ; Surface measurement ; Vegetation ; Developed countries ; Future projections ; Global climate model ; Gross domestic products ; International collaborations ; Land surface ; Land surface temperature ; Regional variation ; Climate models ; climate effect ; climate modeling ; ecological impact ; global warming ; habitat structure ; land surface ; plant community ; twenty first century ; vegetation dynamics
英文摘要: This study examines the impacts of global warming on the timing of plant habitat changes in the twenty-first century using climate scenarios from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The plant habitat changes are predicted by driving the bioclimate rule in a dynamic global vegetation model using the climate projections from 16 coupled GCMs. The timing of plant habitat changes is estimated by the first occurrence of specified fractional changes (10%, 20%, and 30%). All future projections are categorized into three groups by the magnitude of the projected global-mean land surface temperature changes: low (<2.5 K), medium (2.5-3.5 K), and high (>3.5 K) warming. During the course of the twenty-first century, dominant plant habitat changes are projected in ecologically transitional (i.e., from tropical to temperate and temperate to boreal) regions. The timing of plant habitat changes varies substantially according to regions. In the low-warming group, habitat changes of 10% in southern Africa occur in 2028, earlier than in the Americas by more than 70 yr. Differences in the timing between regions increase with the increase in warming and fractional threshold. In the subtropics, fast plant habitat changes are projected for the Asia and Africa regions, where countries of relatively small gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are concentrated. Ecosystems in these regions will be more vulnerable to global warming, because countries of low economic power lack the capability to deal with the warming-induced habitat changes. Thus, it is important to establish international collaboration via which developed countries provide assistance to mitigate the impacts of global warming. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50456
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Park C.-E.,Jeong S.-J.,Ho C.-H.,et al. Regional variations in potential plant habitat changes in response to multiple global warming scenarios[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(7)
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