DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00100.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961291572
论文题名: The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks
作者: Colbert A.J. ; Soden B.J. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 5 起始页码: 1806
结束页码: 1823
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Anthropogenic warming
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Southern oscillation
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined using a beta and advection model (BAM) to isolate the influence of changes in the large-scale steering flow from changes in genesis location. The BAM captures many of the observed changes in TC tracks due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while little change is noted for the Pacific decadal oscillation and all-India monsoon rainfall in either observations or BAM simulations. Analysis with theBAMsuggests that the observed shifts in the average track between the phases of ENSO are primarily due to changes in the large-scale steering flow, with changes in genesis location playing a secondary role. Potential changes in TC tracks over the WNP due to anthropogenic climate change are also assessed. Ensemble mean projections are downscaled from 17 CMIP3 models and 26 CMIP5 models. Statistically significant decreases [~(4%-6%)] in westward moving TCs and increases [~(5%-7%)] in recurving ocean TCs are found. These correspond to projected decreases of 3-5 TCs per decade over the Philippines and increases of 1-3 TCs per decade over the central WNP. The projected changes are primarily caused by a reduction in the easterlies. This slows the storm movement, allowing more time for the beta drift to carry the storm northward and recurve. A previous study found similar results in the North Atlantic. Taken together, these results suggest that a weakening of the mean atmospheric circulation in response to anthropogenic warming will lead to fewer landfalling storms over the North Atlantic and WNP. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50458
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Colbert A.J.,Soden B.J.,Kirtman B.P.. The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(5)