globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0208.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947579728
论文题名:
On discriminating between GCM forcing configurations using Bayesian reconstructions of late-holocene temperatures
作者: Tingley M.; Craigmile P.F.; Haran M.; Li B.; Mannshardt E.; Rajaratnam B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:20
起始页码: 8264
结束页码: 8281
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Several climate modeling groups have recently generated ensembles of last-millennium climate simulations under different forcing scenarios. These experiments represent an ideal opportunity to establish the baseline feasibility of using proxy-based reconstructions of late-Holocene climate as out-of-calibration tests of the fidelity of the general circulation models used to project future climate. This paper develops a formal statistical model for assessing the agreement between members of an ensemble of climate simulations and the ensemble of possible climate histories produced from a hierarchical Bayesian climate reconstruction. As the internal variabilities of the simulated and reconstructed climate are decoupled from one another, the comparison is between the two latent, or unobserved, forced responses. Comparisons of the spatial average of a 600-yr high northern latitude temperature reconstruction to suites of last-millennium climate simulations from the GISS-E2 and CSIRO models, respectively, suggest that the proxy-based reconstructions are able to discriminate only between the crudest features of the simulations within each ensemble. Although one of the three volcanic forcing scenarios used in the GISS-E2 ensemble results in superior agreement with the reconstruction, no meaningful distinctions can be made between simulations performed with different estimates of solar forcing or land cover changes. In the case of the CSIRO model, sequentially adding orbital, greenhouse gas, solar, and volcanic forcings to the simulations generally improves overall consensus with the reconstruction, though the distinctions are not individually significant. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50506
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Statistics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States; Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Department of Statistics, The Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Tingley M.,Craigmile P.F.,Haran M.,et al. On discriminating between GCM forcing configurations using Bayesian reconstructions of late-holocene temperatures[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(20)
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