DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00174.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921684159
论文题名: Dynamically downscaled high-resolution hydroclimate projections for western Canada
作者: Erler A.R. ; Peltier W.R. ; D'Orgeville M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 2 起始页码: 423
结束页码: 450
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economics
; Evapotranspiration
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Rivers
; Snow melting systems
; Stream flow
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Weather forecasting
; Athabasca River basin
; Economic activities
; Hydrological variables
; Initial condition ensembles
; Natural variability
; Seasonal variability
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Winter precipitation
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; evapotranspiration
; global warming
; spatial resolution
; streamflow
; Alberta
; Athabasca
; Canada
英文摘要: Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources in major river systems represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here, dynamically downscaled climate projections for western Canada are presented, and impacts on hydrological variables in two major river basins, the Fraser and Athabasca, are discussed. These regions are both challenging because of the complexity of the topography and important because of the economic activity occurring within them. To obtain robust projections of future conditions, and to adequately characterize the impact of natural variability, a small initial condition ensemble of independently downscaled climate projections is employed. The Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), is used to generate the ensemble, which consists of four members. Downscaling is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, version 3.4.1 (WRF V3.4.1), in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for a historical validation period and for a mid-twenty-first-century projection period [assuming representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for the future trajectory of greenhouse gases]. The projections herein are characterized by an increase in winter precipitation for the mid-twentyfirst-century period, whereas net precipitation in summer is projected to decrease, due to increased evapotranspiration. In the Fraser River basin, a shift to more liquid precipitation and earlier snowmelt will likely reduce the seasonal variability of runoff, in particular the spring freshet. In the Athabasca River basin, winter precipitation and snowmelt may increase somewhat, but increasing evapotranspiration may lead to reduced streamflow in late summer. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50508
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Erler A.R.,Peltier W.R.,D'Orgeville M.. Dynamically downscaled high-resolution hydroclimate projections for western Canada[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)