| 英文摘要: | Courageous steps are required to reform the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. To this end, an independent carbon authority has been proposed — this is a move in the right direction, but should be part of a much broader discussion about reforming emissions trading. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the centrepiece of European climate policy. However, its performance is currently under great scrutiny. Many believe that the carbon price it sets does not provide the correct incentive for long-term investments in low-carbon technologies. Certainly, the current emissions price — between €5 and €6 per tonne of CO2 (Fig. 1) — is far too low to incentivize a switch from coal to low- or zero-emission alternatives. Actually, the consumption of hard coal has been increasing in Europe since 20091. Despite the limited success so far, carbon pricing remains essential for any ambitious climate and energy policy, particularly if the proliferation of coal is to be addressed. Writing in Energy Policy, de Perthuis and Trotignon2 identified “market fundamentals” as drivers of the carbon price decline. Most importantly, they claim that the deterioration of economic conditions since the 2008 crisis should at least partly explain the low carbon price. Additionally, renewable support schemes and the inflow of carbon credits are blamed for a further price decline2, 3. During the period 2008–2013, European carbon emissions were consistently below the annual caps set by the EU ETS. Thus, the cap was temporarily non-binding and a large surplus of allowances was generated. Given that the annual caps have not been binding, it is unclear whether market fundamentals can fully explain the carbon price decline. The EU ETS is an intertemporal trading scheme, therefore, in times of non-binding annual caps (such as in recent years) carbon prices should reflect expectations of future allowance scarcities, which are subject to the credibility of politically envisaged long-term emission targets.
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