globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate2292
论文题名:
Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation
作者: David S. Powlson
刊名: Nature Climate Change
ISSN: 1758-1228X
EISSN: 1758-7348
出版年: 2014-07-30
卷: Volume:4, 页码:Pages:678;683 (2014)
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate-change mitigation
英文摘要:

The Emissions Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Programme restates the claim that changing to no-till practices in agriculture, as an alternative to conventional tillage, causes an accumulation of organic carbon in soil, thus mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. But these claims ignore a large body of experimental evidence showing that the quantity of additional organic carbon in soil under no-till is relatively small: in large part apparent increases result from an altered depth distribution. The larger concentration near the surface in no-till is generally beneficial for soil properties that often, though not always, translate into improved crop growth. In many regions where no-till is practised it is common for soil to be cultivated conventionally every few years for a range of agronomic reasons, so any soil carbon benefit is then lost. We argue that no-till is beneficial for soil quality and adaptation of agriculture to climate change, but its role in mitigation is widely overstated.

The recent Emissions Gap Report 20131 makes bold statements about agriculture's potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The authors of the chapter on 'Policies for Reducing Emissions from Agriculture' estimate that at a marginal cost of less than US$50–100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), direct emissions from agriculture could be reduced by 1.1 to 4.3 Gt CO2e yr−1 by 2020. They claim that 89% of this potential could be realized through improved management practices including conversion to no-tillage land preparation (Box 1), more efficient use of water and fertilizers and addition of biochar to soil.

Box 1: What is no-till?

No-till means reduced soil disturbance as an alternative to traditional cultivation by ploughing or discing, in which the soil is broken and then further cultivated to prepare a seedbed for planting crops. In large-scale mechanized farms tillage operations are performed with heavy machinery pulled by tractor; in smallholder agriculture in less developed regions it is generally achieved using a small animal-drawn implement, or hand-held tools. Where conventional cultivation is eliminated seeds are sown in a slot cut in the soil, causing minimum soil disturbance. Large-scale tractor drawn no-till seeders are widely used, but small-scale no-till seeders are increasingly available for use with either animal traction or small tractors. In Subsaharan Africa no till planting may also be achieved by making a hole for individual seeds, such as those of maize, with a 'dibble stick'. Although complete absence of tillage is called no-till or zero till, reduced tillage or minimum tillage practices are also used whereby there is an intermediate amount of soil disturbance. No-till and reduced till sometimes form a component of a suite of practices termed conservation agriculture (CA), comprising retention of crop residues on the soil surface and diversification of cropping systems in addition to reduced or no-till. Here we specifically address no-till agriculture rather than the complete CA package because this was the focus of the UNEP report with which we take issue, though in a few instances we refer to published data for the full set of CA practices where this is relevant or data is more readily available. For simplicity we use the term 'no-till' throughout to include the range of reduced till practices, from no-till to minimum till. The term 'conservation tillage' is used by some authors but we avoid this as it can be ambiguous, either meaning no-till/reduced till or, depending on the context, it may refer to the no-till component of CA.

Overall the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report1 is helpful: it demonstrates that current global efforts to decrease emissions are far below what is necessary to avoid dangerous climate change2 and it attempts to quantify opportunities for further reductions in different sectors. However, we have substantial concerns that the report overstates the potential for climate change mitigation in agriculture due to over-optimistic assumptions concerning the impact of no-till practices (Box 1 and Fig. 1).

Figure 1: Mexican farmer practising no-till crop establishment.
Mexican farmer practising no-till crop establishment.

Photograph shows use of a 'swather' to cut crop residues and distribute them evenly over the surface of the undisturbed soil. Following this, seeds will be sown using a no-till seeding machine that cuts a slot for seeds, causing minimum disturbance of the soil.

MICHELLE DEFREESE / CIMMYT

Organic matter in the world's soils represents a major stock of organic C, storing about 1,500 Gt C (equivalent to 5,500 Gt CO2) to a depth of 1 m and a further 900 Gt C in the next 1 m (refs 6,7). Organic C in the surface 1 m alone is three times the amount of C in atmospheric CO2. Land-use changes — especially clearing of natural vegetation to expand the area used for crop production — have significantly depleted global soil C stocks and contributed to increased CO2 emissions8, 9. It is therefore entirely appropriate to consider opportunities to slow or reverse this trend through land-management practices. It has been estimated that a 10% increase in the global soil C stock would cancel out 30 years of anthropogenic CO2 emissions6, 7. But there are numerous reasons to be cautious about the potential for sequestering C in this way, including misunderstanding of C flows10, 11, limitations to the area of land that can be removed from agriculture12 and the likelihood that organic C in soil will be subject to more rapid decomposition at elevated temperatures resulting from climate change7, 13.

Several widely cited publications have alluded to the potential of reduced tillage to increase soil organic matter, sequester C, and so contribute to climate change mitigation14, 15, 16. There is certainly evidence that these practices often lead to some increase in organic matter (and hence C) concentration in the 15–20 cm layer of topsoil17 and this has positive benefits such as reduced soil erosion and improved physical properties that increase the extent to which soil can absorb rainfall and hold water, making it available for later crop use5, 18, 19, 20. In some situations these soil improvements lead to increased crop yields4, 5. But the opposite has also been observed, with decreased crop yields under no-till in cool moist climates21 and in tropical environments, after heavy rains, the surface crop residues that accompany no-till in conservation agriculture can sometimes cause waterlogging and reduce yields22.

So what is the evidence that soil organic carbon (SOC) stock increases substantially under no-till and can be viewed as C sequestration and hence a contribution to climate change mitigation? There have been several global reviews6, 17, 23, 24, 25 with most of the experimental evidence derived from the Americas and Australia where no-till is widely practised on large, mechanized farms. A key issue is that much, though not all, of the apparent increase in SOC under no-till results from redistribution of C nearer to the soil surface and is therefore not a net increase in SOC stock17, 26, 27, 28. A comparison of 69 sets of paired data for no-till and conventional till, where soil had been sampled to at least 40 cm depth, showed no overall increase in SOC stock under no-till: larger stocks in the surface 20 cm compared with conventional tillage were counteracted by smaller quantities in the 20–40 cm layer under no-till17. This altered depth distribution is illustrated in Fig. 2. In another global meta-analysis23, SOC stock under conservation agriculture (combination of no-till and residue return — see Box 1) was greater than in conventional practice in about half of the cases but not different in 40%. Similarly, in a meta-analysis of experiments in Mediterranean climatic conditions25 (mainly in the Mediterranean basin), it was found that no-till led to small increases in SOC stock of about 0.3–0.4 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. In an experiment in northern France, one of the world's longest-running and closely-monitored experiments on tillage methods, no-till led to no increase in SOC stock in 41 years29. Thus the optimistic assertion in the UNEP1 report, other claims or implications for major soil C gains through no-till9, 14, 30, 31and in World Bank documents32 are at variance with the conclusions from these detailed analyses of a large body of data.

Figure 2: Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) content in soil under no-till compared to conventional tillage.
Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) content in soil under no-till compared to conventional tillage.

Based on a meta-analysis of data from 43 sites where the two tillage systems had been applied for at least 5 years, and in many cases for more than 15 years. Large filled squares are the geometric mean of data in each soil depth; this value was used because the data were not normally distributed. Bars on each side of large squares represent the range of data from most studies. Values outside this range are shown by small points. An increase in SOC stock in no-till is indicated by an x axis value greater than 0. A value less than 0 indicates a decrease compared to conventional tillage. The data show an accumulation of organic C in the uppermost surface layers (0–10 cm) but a greater amount of C in conventional tillage at the base of the plough layer (about 25 cm). At greater depths there was no significant difference between tillage treatments. Redrawn from ref. 26.

To assess the global potential for no-till practices to sequester soil carbon and thus mitigate climate change we take a value of 0.3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 as an annual carbon accumulation rate under no-till, derived from the reviews cited above. We then apply this accumulation rate to the global area under cereal crops as these are the most likely systems where no-till can be practised. We exclude land in the Americas and Australia because no-till is already widely practised in these regions — where soils and climate are suitable — so any climate change mitigation is already accruing. Applying the value of 0.3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 to the remaining global cereal crop area of 559 Mha (ref. 44) gives an annual global rate of SOC accumulation of 0.17 Gt C, equal to 0.6 Gt CO2e. If the calculation is restricted to the areas under wheat, maize and rice (where no-till can be most easily practised, though with limitations for rice) the figure becomes 0.4 Gt CO2e yr−1.

Although these values for CO2 mitigation are smaller than those proposed in the UNEP report1 (1.1 to 4.3 Gt CO2e yr−1) they are of the same order so, superficially, could be taken as being in moderate agreement. However, we consider our estimate of 0.4 to 0.6 Gt CO2e yr−1 to be highly optimistic for several reasons. First, the annual rate of accumulation we have used for SOC under no-till is probably too large. Although it approximates an average for those situations where increases were measured, there were many cases where the difference in SOC stock between no-till and conventional tillage was very small or zero6, 17, 23, 24, 26, 27, 45. Second, most of the reported differences will be overestimated due to the interplay of altered soil bulk density and the SOC gradient with depth in no-till as discussed above36, 37. Third, in addition to the Americas and Australia, some form of reduced tillage is already used in substantial areas of cropland on large mechanized farms in Europe and Asia, so part of the 'potential' SOC gain from no-till is already occurring and cannot be counted as additional climate change mitigation. But there seems to be considerable uncertainty about the area now under no-till in large countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan, China and India46. Fourth, in some regions, such as northwest Europe, periodic ploughing is commonly practised to control the perennial weeds and soil compaction that are found to result from no-till in the soils and weather conditions of this region42. Periodic tillage also occurs in regions with wider adoption of no-till such as USA and Australia for a range of valid agronomic reasons47, 48. Periodic cultivation will lead to considerable loss of any SOC accumulated in topsoil during the years of no-till35, 42, 47, 48 so the carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation benefits are lost or greatly reduced. Finally, there are significant barriers to widespread adoption of no-till by resource-poor smallholder farmers in less developed regions such as Subsaharan Africa and South Asia due to a range of economic, social and infrastructure factors that have been widely discussed elsewhere4, 5, 49, 50, 51. Thus, for all of these reasons, the apparent potential for increased global SOC stock from adopting no-till is unlikely to be realized.

In view of these major limitations and uncertainties regarding the impact and degree of adoption of no-till, we conclude that its global impact on soil C stocks will be only a fraction of the 0.4 to 0.6 Gt CO2e yr−1 we estimate above, but we have insufficient information available to assess how small a fraction. It is possible that the total extra soil C accumulation could be close to zero. It is also known that a change to no-till can influence emissions of nitrous oxide, causing either increases or decreases52, 53. As nitrous oxide is a potent GHG with a global warming potential 298 times that of CO2 on a 100 year basis54, even a small increase can easily outweigh the benefit of an increase in SOC. Short-term laboratory incubations of soils from tilled and no-till fields in the UK show there is a potential for the overall impact to be decreased emissions55, but it is not known if this is realized under field conditions.

A regional assessment of the impact of a change to no-till was made for wheat-based production systems in the Indian states within the Indo-Gangetic Plain56, the breadbasket of South Asia. IPCC methodology was used to estimate the potential for climate change mitigation through soil C sequestration, applying the IPCC factors to the different soils and climatic conditions in the region. This modelling study led to calculated annual rates of SOC accumulation under no-till in the range 0.2–0.4 Mg C ha−1, broadly consistent with annual rates measured in other regions of the world and cited above

URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n8/full/nclimate2292.html
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标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5052
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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David S. Powlson. Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation[J]. Nature Climate Change,2014-07-30,Volume:4:Pages:678;683 (2014).
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