DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00816.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84950154627
论文题名: Extratropical cyclones in idealized simulations of changed climates
作者: Pfahl S. ; O'Gorman P.A. ; Singh M.S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 23 起始页码: 9373
结束页码: 9392
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Kinetic energy
; Kinetics
; Sea level
; Storms
; Troposphere
; Vorticity
; Climate change impact
; Climate model simulations
; Diabatic heating
; Displacement velocity
; Extratropical cyclones
; General circulation model
; Global-mean temperature
; Latent heat release
; Climate change
; air-sea interaction
; atmosphere-ocean system
; climate change
; climate modeling
; diabatic process
; extratropical environment
; potential vorticity
; precipitation (climatology)
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: Cyclones are a key element of extratropical weather and frequently lead to extreme events like wind storms and heavy precipitation. Understanding potential changes of cyclone frequency and intensity is thus essential for a proper assessment of climate change impacts. Here the behavior of extratropical cyclones under strongly varying climate conditions is investigated using idealized climate model simulations in an aquaplanet setup. A cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to assess various statistics of cyclone properties such as intensity, size, lifetime, displacement velocity, and deepening rates. In addition, a composite analysis of intense cyclones is performed. In general, the structure of extratropical cyclones in the idealized simulations is very robust, and changes in major cyclone characteristics are relatively small. Median cyclone intensity, measured in terms of minimum sea level pressure and lower-tropospheric relative vorticity, has a maximum in simulations with global mean temperature slightly warmer than present-day Earth, broadly consistent with the behavior of the eddy kinetic energy analyzed in previous studies. Maximum deepening rates along cyclone tracks behave similarly and are in agreement with linear quasigeostrophic growth rates if the effect of latent heat release on the stratification is taken into account. In contrast to moderate cyclones, the relative vorticity of intense cyclones continues to increase with warming to substantially higher temperatures, and this is associated with enhanced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies likely caused by increased diabatic heating. Moist processes may, therefore, lead to the further strengthening of intense cyclones in warmer climates even if cyclones weaken on average. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research
; NSF, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50545
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pfahl S.,O'Gorman P.A.,Singh M.S.. Extratropical cyclones in idealized simulations of changed climates[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(23)