DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00497.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946196496
论文题名: Contribution of synoptic transients to the potential predictability of PNA circulation anomalies: El niño versus la niña
作者: Abid M.A. ; Kang I.-S. ; Almazroui M. ; Kucharski F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 21 起始页码: 8347
结束页码: 8362
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Coastal zones
; Oceanography
; Signal to noise ratio
; Surface waters
; Transients
; Circulation anomalies
; Ensemble members
; Geo-potential heights
; Noise variance
; North American
; Precipitation anomalies
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Spatial patterns
; Nickel
; air-sea interaction
; geopotential
; oceanic circulation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; twentieth century
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The potential predictability (PP) of seasonal-mean 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) anomalies in the Pacific-North American (PNA) region is examined for El Niño and La Niña separately by using 50 ensemble members of twentieth-centuryAGCMsimulations. Observed sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed for the period 1870-2009, and 14 El Niño and La Niña years after 1900 are selected for the present study. The domain-averaged value of PP for Z200 in the PNA region, as measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, for El Niño is about 60% larger than that of La Niña. Such a large PP is mainly due to a larger signal and partly to less noise during El Niño compared to that during La Niña. The transient eddy feedback to the PNA circulation anomalies is stronger during El Niño events (about 50%) than that during La Niña, and this difference in the transients contributes significantly to the different Z200 signals in the PNA region. The noise variance of the transients during El Niño is about 17% smaller than during La Niña, and thus transients play an important role in the reduction of Z200 noise during El Niño. Idealized experiments with the same spatial pattern but different signs of SST anomalies confirm the results mentioned above. Moreover, these experiments with several different amplitudes of positive and negative phases of tropical Pacific SST anomalies show that signals of Z200 and transients are proportional to precipitation anomalies in the tropical Pacific, and noises of Z200 for El Niño cases are somewhat smaller than the corresponding values of La Niña. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50552
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Earth System Physics Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Abid M.A.,Kang I.-S.,Almazroui M.,et al. Contribution of synoptic transients to the potential predictability of PNA circulation anomalies: El niño versus la niña[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(21)