| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0053.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84942036445
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| 论文题名: | Intraseasonal persistence of European surface temperatures |
| 作者: | Kolstad E.W.; Sobolowski S.P.; Scaife A.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 28, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 5365
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| 结束页码: | 5374
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Balloons
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Statistics
; Vortex flow
; Climate model simulations
; Driving mechanism
; Long-range forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Standard deviation
; Stratospheric polar vortex
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature anomaly
; Weather forecasting
; climate modeling
; seasonal variation
; surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; weather forecasting
; Europe
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| 英文摘要: | Recent periods of extreme weather in Europe, such as the cold winter of 2009/10, have caused widespread impacts and were remarkable because of their persistence. It is therefore of great interest to improve the ability to forecast such events. Weather forecasts at midlatitudes generally show low skill beyond 5- 10 days, but long-range forecast skill may increase during extended tropospheric blocking episodes or perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex, which can affect midlatitude weather for several weeks at a time. Here a simple, linear approach is used to identify previously undocumented persistence in northern European summer and winter temperature anomalies in climate model simulations, corroborated by observations and reanalysis data. For instance, temperature anomalies of at least one standard deviation above or below climatology in March were found to be about 20%-120% more likely than normal if the preceding February was anomalous by 0.5-1.5 standard deviations (with the same sign). The corresponding range for April (i.e., persistence over two months) is between 20% and 80%. The persistence is observed irrespective of the data source or driving mechanisms, and the temperature itself is a more skillful predictor of the temperatures one month ahead than the stratospheric polar vortex or theNAOand even than both factors together. The results suggest potential to conditionally improve the skill of long-range forecasts and enhance recent advancements in dynamical seasonal prediction. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50589
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kolstad E.W.,Sobolowski S.P.,Scaife A.A.. Intraseasonal persistence of European surface temperatures[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)
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