DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00159.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921696245
论文题名: Two approaches for statistical prediction of non-gaussian climate extremes: A case study of macao hot extremes during 1912-2012
作者: Qian C. ; Zhou W. ; Fong S.K. ; Leong K.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 2 起始页码: 623
结束页码: 636
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Correlation methods
; Forecasting
; Gaussian distribution
; Gaussian noise (electronic)
; Linear regression
; Linear transformations
; Mathematical transformations
; Regression analysis
; Climate variability and change
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Generalized linear model
; Inter-decadal variability
; Least squares fitting
; Multiple linear regression models
; Statistical approach
; Statistical prediction
; Climate models
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; Gaussian method
; monsoon
; China
; Macau
英文摘要: The Gaussian assumption has been widely used without testing in many previous studies on climate variability and change that have used traditional statistical methods to estimate linear trends, diagnose physical mechanisms, or construct statistical prediction/downscaling models. In this study, the authors carefully test the normality of two hot extreme indices in Macao, China, during the last 100 years based on consecutive daily temperature observational data and find that the occurrences of both hot day and hot night indices are non-Gaussian. Simple least squares fitting is shown to overestimate the linear trend when the Gaussian assumption is violated. Two approaches are further proposed to statistically predict non-Gaussian temperature extremes: one uses a multiple linear regression model after transforming the non-Gaussian predictant to a quasi-Gaussian variable and uses Pearson's correlation test to identify potential predictors, and the other uses a generalized linear model when the transformation is difficult and uses a nonparametric Spearman's correlation test to identify potential predictors. The annual occurrences of hot days and hot nights in Macao are used as examples of these two approaches, respectively. The physical mechanisms for these two hot extremes in Macao are also investigated, and the results show that both are related to the interannual and interdecadal variability of a coupled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian summer monsoon system. Finally, the authors caution other researchers to test the assumed distribution of climate extremes and to apply appropriate statistical approaches. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50592
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macau
Recommended Citation:
Qian C.,Zhou W.,Fong S.K.,et al. Two approaches for statistical prediction of non-gaussian climate extremes: A case study of macao hot extremes during 1912-2012[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)