globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00150.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945471135
论文题名:
Projected changes in climate extremes over the northeastern United States
作者: Ning L.; Riddle E.E.; Bradley R.S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:8
起始页码: 3289
结束页码: 3310
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Distribution functions ; Uncertainty analysis ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Cumulative distribution function ; General circulation model ; Interannual variability ; Precipitation extremes ; Precipitation indices ; Spatial disaggregation ; Statistical downscaling ; Probability distributions
英文摘要: Projections of historical and future changes in climate extremes are examined by applying the bias-correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD) statistical downscaling method to five general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For this analysis, 11 extreme temperature and precipitation indices that are relevant acrossmultiple disciplines (e.g., agriculture and conservation) are chosen. Over the historical period, the simulated means, variances, and cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of each of the 11 indices are first compared with observations, and the performance of the downscaling method is quantitatively evaluated. For the future period, the ensemble average of the five GCM simulations points to more warm extremes, fewer cold extremes, and more precipitation extremes with greater intensities under all three scenarios. The changes are larger under higher emissions scenarios. The inter-GCM uncertainties and changes in probability distributions are also assessed. Changes in the probability distributions indicate an increase in both the number and interannual variability of future climate extreme events. The potential deficiencies of the method in projecting future extremes are also discussed. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSF, U.S. Geological Survey ; USGS, U.S. Geological Survey
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50599
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex System, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Northeast Climate Science Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Jiangsu Center for Collab. Innovation Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China; Department of Geoscience, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Northeast Climate Science Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ning L.,Riddle E.E.,Bradley R.S.. Projected changes in climate extremes over the northeastern United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(8)
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