globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00733.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942917272
论文题名:
On the long-term climate memory in the surface air temperature records over antarctica: A nonnegligible factor for trend evaluation
作者: Yuan N.; Ding M.; Huang Y.; Fu Z.; Xoplaki E.; Luterbacher J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:15
起始页码: 5922
结束页码: 5934
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Statistics ; Time series ; White noise ; Antarctic stations ; Autoregressive process ; Climate variability ; Continental area ; Detrended fluctuation analysis ; Significance test ; Surface air temperatures ; Trends ; Climatology ; air temperature ; climate variation ; climatology ; time series analysis ; trend analysis ; Antarctica ; Byrd Station ; West Antarctica
英文摘要: In this study, observed temperature records of 12 stations from Antarctica island, coastline, and continental areas are analyzed by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). After Monte Carlo significance tests, different long-term climatememory (LTM) behaviors are found: temperatures from coastal and island stations are characterized by significant long-term climate memory whereas temperatures over the Antarctic continent behave more like white noise, except for the Byrd station, which is located in the West Antarctica. It is argued that the emergence of LTM may be dominated by the interactions between local weather system and external slow-varying systems (ocean), and therefore the different LTMbehaviors between temperatures over the Byrd station and that over other continental stations can be considered as a reflection of the different climatic environments between West and East Antarctica. By calculating the trend significance with the effect of LTM taken into account, and further comparing the results with those obtained from assumptions of autoregressive (AR) process and white noise, it is found that 1) most of the Antarctic stations do not show any significant trends over the past several decades, and 2) more rigorous trend evaluation can be obtained if the effect of LTM is considered. Therefore, it is emphasized that for air temperatures over Antarctica, especially for the Antarctica coastline, island, and the west continental areas, LTM is nonnegligible for trend evaluation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSFC, China Meteorological Administration ; CMA, China Meteorological Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50604
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作者单位: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany; Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmospheric Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions, Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

Recommended Citation:
Yuan N.,Ding M.,Huang Y.,et al. On the long-term climate memory in the surface air temperature records over antarctica: A nonnegligible factor for trend evaluation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)
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