DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00693.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947725642
论文题名: Cross-time scale interactions and rainfall extreme events in southeastern South America for the austral summer. Part I: Potential predictors
作者: Muñoz Á.G. ; Goddard L. ; Robertson A.W. ; Kushnir Y. ; Baethgen W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 19 起始页码: 7894
结束页码: 7913
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Fighter aircraft
; Moisture
; Rain
; Scale (deposits)
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
; Interannual variability
; Seasonal variability
; Statistical techniques
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate prediction
; extreme event
; precipitation intensity
; seasonal variation
; summer
; Andes
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of differentmesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the PacificOcean; another threeWTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors thatmodulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50614
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Centro de Modelado Científico, Universidad del Zulia, Maracaibo, Venezuela; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Muñoz Á.G.,Goddard L.,Robertson A.W.,et al. Cross-time scale interactions and rainfall extreme events in southeastern South America for the austral summer. Part I: Potential predictors[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(19)