DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00582.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944128084
论文题名: Understanding the contrast of Australian springtime rainfall of 1997 and 2002 in the frame of two flavors of El Niño
作者: Lim E.-P. ; Hendon H.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 7 起始页码: 2804
结束页码: 2822
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Drought
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Antarctic oscillation
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Bureau of meteorologies
; EL Nino
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern Annular Mode
; Springtime rainfalls
; Statistical reconstruction
; Weather forecasting
; air-sea interaction
; Antarctic Oscillation
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; El Nino
; prediction
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; spring (season)
; warming
; Australia
英文摘要: This study investigates the causes and predictability of the different springtime rainfall responses over Australia for El Niño in 1997 and 2002. The rainfall deficit over Australia is generally assumed to be linearly related to the strength of El Niño. However, Australia received near-normal springtime rainfall during the record strong El Niño in 1997, whereas it suffered from severe drought, especially in the east, during the weak El Niño of 2002. Statistical reconstruction of the rainfall anomalies and forecasts produced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system [Predictive Ocean and Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)] demonstrated that the eastward and westward shifts of the maximum SST warming of El Niño contributed to the near-normal and dry responses of Australian spring rainfall in 1997 and 2002, respectively. Hence, the contrasting rainfall responses were largely predictable. However, the dry conditions in 2002 were significantly amplified by the occurrence of the record strength negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), which could only be predicted with the use of realistic atmospheric initial conditions in the atmosphere-ocean coupled configuration of POAMA. Therefore, predictability of the severity of the 2002 drought over Australia was strongly constrained by the predictability of the SAM, despite the high predictability of the drier than normal condition of 2002 spring that stems from the anomalous central Pacific warming of 2002 El Niño. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50625
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; CSIRO, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lim E.-P.,Hendon H.H.. Understanding the contrast of Australian springtime rainfall of 1997 and 2002 in the frame of two flavors of El Niño[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(7)